ABIO10 PGTW 081800
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN/081800Z-
091800ZMAY2026//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
9.6S 82.0E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 10.7S 81.2E, APPROXIMATELY 559 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY 
ALONG WITH A 081153Z SSMIS 93GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS A PARTIALLY 
OBSCURED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WITH PERSISTENT CONVECTION 
WRAPPING AROUND THE CENTER. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS A MARGINAL 
ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH WEAK POLEWARD UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW, LOW 
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (10-15 KTS), AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (28-
29 C) BALANCED BY 20+ WESTERLY MID-LEVEL SHEAR. GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC AND 
ENSEMBLE MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT THE AREA OF CONVECTION (93S) WILL 
REMAIN RELATIVELY QUASISTATIONARY, BEFORE BECOMING EMBEDDED WITHIN 
SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS . THE GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC MODELS 
INDICATE THAT 93S WILL STRUGGLE TO CONSOLIDATE OVER THE NEXT 48-72 HOURS 
AS IT CONTINUES ITS SLUGGISH SOUTHWESTERLY TRACK. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED 
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 23 TO 28 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL 
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1003 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE 
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS 
REMAINS LOW.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
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