ABIO10 PGTW 070300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN 
REISSUED/070300Z-071800ZMAY2026//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93S) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 7.7S 
83.2E, APPROXIMATELY 641 NM EAST OF DIEGO GARCIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED 
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY (EIR) DEPICTS A BROAD ROTATION WITH 
PERSISTENT BUT DISORGANIZED CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW LEVEL 
CIRCULATION (LLCC) EMBEDDED WITHIN A TROUGH. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS 
DEPICTS FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW TO MODERATE 
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (15-20 KTS), WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (29-30C), 
AND MODERATE POLEWARD OUTFLOW WITHIN THE UPPER LEVELS. MODEL 
GUIDANCE IS MIXED, WITH THE GEFS AND ECENS ESEMBLES DEPICTING SLOW BUT 
STEADY DEVLEOPMENT AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS POLEWARD. GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC 
MODELS ARE IN A DISAGREEMENT, WITH THE GFS BEING THE MOST AGGRESSIVE 
GUIDANCE, DEPICTING A RAPID DEVELOPMENT AND INTENSIFICATION WITHIN THE 
NEXT 72 HOURS, WHILE THE ECMWF AND NAVGEM SHOW VERY WEAK DEVELOPMENT, 
KEEPING THE SYSTEM BELOW WARNING THRESHOLD. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE 
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS 
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A 
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: ADDED LOW AREA IN PARA. 2.B.(1).//
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