WTPS21 PGTW 032230
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 90P) REISSUED//
REF/A/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/02221ZAPR2026// 
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.// 
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 9.7S 156.1E TO 9.2S 152.9E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 28 TO 33 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 032200Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 9.6S 155.8E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 03
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
10.2S 155.0E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 9.6S 155.8E, APPROXIMATELY 250 NM WEST 
OF HONIARA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS AN OBSCURED 
LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH CONVECTIVE BANDING NOTICEABLE 
ALONG THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE OF 90P. A 031937Z WSFM 89 GHZ MICROWAVE 
IMAGE REVEALED DEEP CONVECTION OFFSET TO THE WEST OF THE LLCC AND 
DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CLOUDS WRAPPING INTO THE CENTER. ENVIRONMENTAL 
ANALYSIS REVEALS A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR FORMATION WITH FAIR 
EQUATORWARD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW, LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (10-15 KTS), 
AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (29-30 C). GLOBAL MODELS AGREE THAT 
90P WILL REMAIN QUASI-STATIONARY OR DRIFT SLOWLY WESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 
24 TO 48 HOURS WITH FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS 
ARE ESTIMATED AT 28 TO 33 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED 
TO BE NEAR 1002 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT 
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS HIGH. THIS SUPERSEDES 
REF A (WTPS21 PGTW 022230).
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 
042230Z.//
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