ABPW10 PGTW 032230
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH 
PACIFIC OCEANS/REISSUED/032230Z-040600ZAPR2026//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/032221ZAPR2026//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT REISSUED.//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1)  THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
10.2S 155.0E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 9.6S 155.8E, APPROXIMATELY 250 NM 
WEST OF HONIARA. ANIMATED ENHANCED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY 
(MSI) DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) 
EMBEDDED WITHIN PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION WITH SPIRAL BANDS OF DEEP 
CONVECTION WRAPPING INTO THE CENTER. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS FOR THE 
AREA INDICATES A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR CYCLOGENESIS 
WITH LOW TO MODERATE (15-20 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, WARM SEA SURFACE 
TEMPERATURES (29-30 C), AND ROBUST POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT. GLOBAL 
DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODELS, IN ADDITION TO THE EXPERIMENTAL 
GOOGLE DEEP MIND ENSEMBLE, INDICATE QUASI-STATIONARY MOVEMENT WITH 
QUICK CONSOLIDATION AND DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 23 TO 28 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA 
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1002 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE 
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS 
REMAINS HIGH. SEE REF A (WTPS21 PGTW 032230) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 91P) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 9.0S 
173.0E, APPROXIMATELY 590 NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF PORT VILA. ANIMATED 
ENHANCED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) AND A 030047Z OCEANSAT 
DEPICTS AN AREA OF CALMER WINDS (5-10 KTS) CLOSER TO THE CENTER, WHILE 
MORE ELEVATED WINDS (10-15 KTS) ARE OBSERVED ALONG THE NORTHERN FLANK 
OF THE CIRCULATION. WITHIN THE STRUCTURE OF 91P, MULTIPLE 
MESOVORTICIES ROTATING CYCLONICALLY ARE IDENTIFIABLE. UPPER AIR 
ANALYSIS INDICATES A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR FURTHER 
DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW (10-15 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, WARM (29-30 C) 
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND A MODERATE POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL 
ASSISTING THE SYSTEM. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON A 
SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK WITH STEADY INTENSIFICATION OVER THE NEXT 24-48 
HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 23 TO 28 
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1003 MB. THE 
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN 
THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
      (3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: REISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION 
ALERT FOR INVEST 90P.//
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