ABPW10 PGTW 030600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH 
PACIFIC OCEANS/030600Z-040600ZAPR2026//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/022221ZAPR2026//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
10.2S 155.0E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 10.0S 154.2E, APPROXIMATELY 421 NM 
EAST OF PORT MORESBY, PAPUA NEW GUINEA. ANIMATED ENHANCED 
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING LOW-
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) EMBEDDED WITHIN PERSISTENT DEEP 
CONVECTION WITH SPIRAL BANDS OF DEEP CONVECTION WRAPPING INTO THE 
CENTER. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS FOR THE AREA INDICATES A MARGINALLY 
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR CYCLOGENESIS WITH LOW TO MODERATE (15-20 
KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (29-30 C), AND 
ROBUST POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT. GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE 
MODELS, IN ADDITION TO THE EXPERIMENTAL GOOGLE DEEP MIND ENSEMBLE, 
INDICATE QUASI-STATIONARY MOVEMENT WITH QUICK CONSOLIDATION AND 
DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS 
ARE ESTIMATED AT 23 TO 28 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS 
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1001 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A 
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS HIGH. 
SEE REF A (WTPS21 PGTW 022230) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 91P) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 9.0S 
173.0E, APPROXIMATELY 590 NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF PORT VILA. ANIMATED 
ENHANCED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) AND A 030047Z OCEANSAT 
DEPICTS AN AREA OF CALMER WINDS (5-10 KTS) CLOSER TO THE CENTER, WHILE 
MORE ELEVATED WINDS (10-15 KTS) ARE OBSERVED ALONG THE NORTHERN FLANK 
OF THE CIRCULATION. WITHIN THE STRUCTURE OF 91P, MULTIPLE 
MESOVORTICIES ROTATING CYCLONICALLY ARE IDENTIFIABLE. UPPER AIR 
ANALYSIS INDICATES A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR FURTHER 
DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW (10-15 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, WARM (29-30 C) 
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND A MODERATE POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL 
ASSISTING THE SYSTEM. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON A 
SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK WITH STEADY INTENSIFICATION OVER THE NEXT 24-48 
HOURS.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 23 TO 28 
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1003 MB. THE 
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN 
THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
      (3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
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