WTPS21 PGTW 022230
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 90P)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
A 150 NM RADIUS OF 8.8S 154.5E WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.
AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL
CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO
BE 23 TO 28 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 021800Z INDICATES THAT A
CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 10.2S 155.0E. THE SYSTEM IS
MOVING WESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
10.2S 157.8E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 10.2S 155.0E, APPROXIMATELY 467 NM EAST 
OF PORT MORESBY, PAPUA NEW GUINEA. ANIMATED ENHANCED MULTISPECTRAL 
SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION 
CENTER (LLCC) EMBEDDED WITHIN PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION WITH SPIRAL 
BANDS OF DEEP CONVECTION WRAPPING INTO THE CENTER. ENVIRONMENTAL 
ANALYSIS FOR THE AREA INDICATES A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR 
CYCLOGENESIS WITH LOW TO MODERATE (15-20 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, WARM 
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (29-30 C), AND ROBUST POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT. 
GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODELS, IN ADDITION TO THE 
EXPERIMENTAL GOOGLE DEEP MIND ENSEMBLE, INDICATE QUASI-STATIONARY 
MOVEMENT WITH QUICK CONSOLIDATION AND DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT 24 
HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 23 TO 28 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1001 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 
032230Z.//
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