ABPW10 PGTW 020600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH 
PACIFIC OCEANS/020600Z-030600ZAPR2026//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
11.2S 158.1E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 10.2S 157.8E, APPROXIMATELY 138 NM 
WEST-SOUTHWEST OF HONIARA, SOLOMON ISLANDS. ANIMATED ENHANCED 
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A DISORGANIZED LOW-LEVEL 
CIRCULATION CENTER EMBEDDED WITHIN FLARING CONVECTION ALONG THE NORTHERN 
PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM. ENVIRONMENT ANALYSIS FOR THIS AREA IS MARGINAL 
FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW (10-15 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, WARM (29-30 C) 
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, OFFSET BY WEAK POLEWARD OUTFLOW SUPPORTING 
DEVELOPMENT. GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT 
ON GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION AND A QUASI-STATIONARY TRACK OVER THE NEXT 
24-48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE 
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN 
THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
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