ABIO10 PGTW 011500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN 
REISSUED/011500Z-011800ZAPR2026//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PERAL HARBOR HI/011451ZAPR2026//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 99S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
10.8S 75.0E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 11.6S 11.6E, APPROXIMATELY 290 NM 
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA. ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE 
IMAGERY DEPICTS 99S AS A CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER 
(LLCC) WITH STRONGER CONVECTION BUILDING NEAR THE CENTER. WITHIN THE 
LAST 24 HOURS, THE STRONGEST TURNING IS NEAR THE SOUTHEASTWARD SIDE OF 
THE LLCC BASED ON EARLIER SCATTEROMETER DATA. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS 
REVEALS FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND 
SHEAR (15 KNOTS OR LESS), GOOD POLEWARD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW ALOFT, AND 
WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (29-30 C). GLOBAL AND ENSEMBLE MODELS 
ARE ON AGREEMENT WITH SWIFT DEVELOPMENT AND A STEADY SOUTHWESTWARD 
TRACK WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE 
ESTIMATED AT 23 TO 28 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED 
TO BE NEAR 1001 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT 
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO HIGH. SEE REF 
A (WTXS21 PGTW 011500) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADED AREA IN PARA 2.B.(1) TO HIGH//
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