ABIO10 PGTW 311800
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN 
OCEAN/311800ZMAR2026-011800ZAPR2026//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 99S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
9.6S 76.1E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 8.6S 75.9E, APPROXIMATELY 213 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY DEPICTS A 
DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) PARTIALLY OBSCURED BY 
FLARING CONVECTION. A 311629Z METOP-B ASCAT PASS REVEALED 15-20 KNOT 
WINDS WITHIN THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE SYSTEM. ENVIRONMENTAL 
ANALYSIS REVEALS FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW VERTICAL 
WIND SHEAR (10-15 KTS), WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (29 TO 30 C), AND 
MODERATE POLEWARD OUTFLOW. DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODELS ARE IN GOOD 
AGREEMENT OF 99S FURTHER DEVELOPING AND TAKING A SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD 
TRACK OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE 
ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO 
BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT 
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
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