ABIO10 PGTW 301800
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN 
OCEAN/301800Z-311800ZMAR2026//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 99S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
9.6S 76.1E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 8.9S 77.0E, APPROXIMATELY 285 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY DEPICTS A 
PARTIALLY OBSCURED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WITH CONVECTIVE BANDING 
ALONG THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE. A 301250Z SSMIS PASS SHOWS DISORGANIZED 
CURVED BANDING ABOUT AN ELONGATED LLCC ALONG A WEST-NORTHWEST TO EAST-
SOUTHEAST AXIS. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE 
ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH MODERATE POLEWARD UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW, 
MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (15-20 KTS), AND WARM SEA SURFACE 
TEMPERATURES (29-30 C). OUT OF THE DETERMINISTIC MODELS, NAVGEM IS MOST 
AGGRESSIVE WITH 99S, SHOWING IMMEDIATE DEVELOPMENT, BUT OTHER MODELS 
ARE MORE HESITANT, SHOWING GRADUAL ORGANIZATION OVER THE NEXT 24-48 
HOURS. GLOBAL MODELS AGREE ON 99S TURNING SLOWLY SOUTHWARD OR 
SOUTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE 
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS 
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A 
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
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