ABIO10 PGTW 291800
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN/291800Z-
301800ZMAR2026//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 99S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
9.2S 76.0E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 9.6S 76.1E, APPROXIMATELY 253 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY 
(EIR) DEPICTS A GRADUALLY CONSOLIDATING LLCC WITH FLARING CONVECTION AND 
ELEVATED WINDS BEGINNING TO WRAP ALONG THE NORTHEASTERN PERIPHERY INTO 
THE EASTERN QUADRANT AS DEPICTED IN A 291531Z METOP-B ASCAT PASS. 99S IS 
CURRENTLY IN A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT 
WITH VERY WARM (29-30 C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, MODERATE POLEWARD 
OUTFLOW ALOFT, WHILE ALSO BEING PLACED WITHIN A POCKET OF LIGHTER 
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (10-15 KNOTS). A FACTOR THAT CAN NEGATIVELY AFFECT 
THE SYSTEM IS A LARGE DRY AIR MASS TO THE WEST THAT WILL BE IN THE 
DIRECT PATH OF 99S AS IT CONTINUES TO CONSOLIDATE. GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC 
AND ENSEMBLE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON A SOUTHWESTWARD TRANSIT AND 
SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED 
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL 
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE 
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS 
REMAINS LOW.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
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