WTPS21 PGTW 220230
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 98P)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 12.6S 160.4E TO 19.6S 162.7E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 220200Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 12.9S 160.5E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD AT 01
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 98P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
11.7S 161.1E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.9S 160.5E, APPROXIMATELY 205 NM 
SOUTH OF HONIARA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS AN 
OBSCURED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WITH CONVECTIVE BANDING 
DEVELOPING IN ALL QUADRANTS. A 212237Z ASCAT PASS SHOWS A DEFINED 
CIRCULATION WITH A SWATH OF 25 KT WINDS ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF 
98P. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR 
DEVELOPMENT WITH STRONG POLEWARD AND WEAK EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, LOW 
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (10-15 KTS), AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES 
(28-29 C). THE ENSEMBLE MODELS ARE MORE AGGRESSIVE IN THE FORMATION 
OF 98P THAN THE DETERMINISTIC MODELS, THOUGH BOTH MODEL TYPES AGREE 
ON 98P TRACKING SOUTHWARD WHILE SLOWLY INTENSIFYING OVER THE NEXT 24-
48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 
230230Z.//
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