ABPW10 PGTW 210600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH 
PACIFIC OCEANS/210600Z-220600ZMAR2026//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/210151ZMAR2026//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 21MAR26 0000Z, TROPICAL CYCLONE 27P (NARELLE) WAS LOCATED 
NEAR 12.9S 138.8E, APPROXIMATELY 463 NM EAST OF DARWIN, AUSTRALIA, AND 
HAD TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 70 KNOTS GUSTING TO 85 
KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTPS31 PGTW 210300) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 98P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
11.1S 161.7E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 11.7S 161.1E, APPROXIMATELY 143 NM 
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF HONIARA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY 
DEPICTS A STEADILY CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) 
WITH FLARING CONVECTION THROUGHOUT THE CIRCULATION.  ENVIRONMENTAL 
ANALYSIS REVEALS FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW VERTICAL 
WIND SHEAR (LESS THAN 15 KNOTS), MODERATE POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT, AND 
WARM (29-30 C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE. GLOBAL MODELS DISAGREE ON 
FORMATION TIMELINE, BUT HOWEVER DO AGREE ON FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. THE GFS 
IS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE MODEL, SHOWING 35 KNOT WINDS DEVELOPING IN AROUND 
30-36 HOURS. ENSEMBLES ARE IN AGREEMENT ON A GENERALLY SOUTHWARD TRACK, 
TOWARD NEW CALEDONIA, OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED 
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 23 TO 28 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL 
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE 
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS 
REMAINS MEDIUM.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
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