ABPW10 PGTW 210300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH 
PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/210300Z-210600ZMAR2026//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/210151ZMAR2026//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 21MAR26 0000Z, TROPICAL CYCLONE 27P (NARELLE) WAS 
LOCATED NEAR 12.9S 138.8E, APPROXIMATELY 463 NM EAST OF DARWIN, 
AUSTRALIA, AND HAD TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE 
PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 70 
KNOTS GUSTING TO 85 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTPS31 PGTW 210300) FOR FURTHER 
DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 98P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED 
NEAR 11.1S 161.7E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 11.7S 161.1E, APPROXIMATELY 145 
NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF HONIARA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE 
IMAGERY DEPICTS A VERY BROAD, BUT STEADILY DEVELOPING A LOWER-LEVEL 
CIRCULATION (LLC), WITH PERSISTENT FLARING CONVECTION SCATTERED 
THROUGHOUT THE CIRCULATION. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS FAVORABLE 
CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR 
(15 TO 20KTS), WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (29 TO 30 C), AND GOOD 
POLEWARD OUTFLOW. GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC MODELS DISAGREE ON FORMATION 
TIME FRAME WITH THE GFS MODEL BEING THE MOST AGGRESSIVE AND ECMWF 
LATER BY 48 HOURS. ENSEMBLE MODELS HOWEVER ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT OF 
THE DEVELOPMENT OF 98P INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE AND IT TAKING A 
GENERAL SOUTHERLY TRACK OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS. MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 23 TO 28 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA 
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE 
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 
HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADED AREA IN PARA 2.B.(1) TO 
MEDIUM.//
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