WTPS21 PGTW 161830
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 96P)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 13.1S 157.0E TO 13.3S 152.9E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 28 TO 33 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 161800Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 13.1S 156.8E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 07 
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED 
NEAR 13.2S 157.5E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 13.1S 156.8E, APPROXIMATELY 
286 NM SOUTHWEST OF HONIARA. ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS 
A CONSOLIDATING CIRCULATION WITH PERSISTENT CONVECTION OBSCURING THE 
LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 161339Z OCEANSAT-3 PASS REVEALS 
25-30KTS WINDS ALONG THE NORTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE CIRCULATION. 
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS DEPICTS FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH 
LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (15 TO 20KTS), WARM SEA SURFACE 
TEMPERATURES (28 TO 29C), AND GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW. GLOBAL 
DETERMINISTIC MODELS AND ENSEMBLE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT OF 96P 
TAKING A GENERALLY WESTWARD TRACK AND ITS DEVELOPMENT IN A TROPICAL 
CYCLONE THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED 
AT 28 TO 33 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 
1003 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL 
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 
171830Z.//
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