ABIO10 PGTW 141800
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN/141800Z-
151800ZMAR2026//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
9.3S 56.8E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 11.7S 59.5E, APPROXIMATELY 482 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF SEYCHELLES. ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY DEPICTS A 
DISORGANIZED, ELONGATED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION EMBEDDED WITHIN THE 
MONSOON TROUGH, OBSCURED BY FLARING CONVECTION. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS 
REVEALS MARGINALLY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW TO 
MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (10 - 15 KTS), WARM SEA SURFACE 
TEMPERATURES (29 C), AND A MODERATE POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL. GLOBAL 
DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 94S WILL HAVE A LOW 
CHANCE OF DEVELOPMENT IN THE NEAR FUTURE, WITH NO MODELS REACHING 35 
KTS. THE ECMWF AND GFS ENSEMBLES ARE IN DISAGREEMENT, WITH THE GFS 
ENSEMBLE DEPICTING SIGNIFICANT WEAKENING AND LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE TRACK 
WITH 94S. THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE DEPICTS THE OPPOSITE, WITH A MAJORITY OF 
THE MEMBERS SHOWING CONSISTENT INTENSITY OR STRENGTHENING OF INTENSITY 
AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WITH A STRONGER SIGNAL. MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 28 TO 33 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA 
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1002 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE 
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS 
REMAINS MEDIUM.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
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