ABIO10 PGTW 131800
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN/131800Z-
141800ZMAR2026//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
9.9S 54.7E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 9.3S 56.8E, APPROXIMATELY 291 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF SEYCHELLES. ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY DEPICTS A SLOWLY 
CONSOLIDATING BUT ELONGATED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION EMBEDDED INSIDE THE 
MONSOON TROUGH, OBSCURED BY FLARING CONVECTION. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS 
REVEALS MODERATELY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW TO 
MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (15 TO 20 KTS), WARM (29 TO 30 C) SEA 
SURFACE TEMPERATURES, AND A MODERATE EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL. GLOBAL 
DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT ON SOUTH-SOUTHEAST TRACK AND 
DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THE ENCROACHMENT OF A DRY AIR MASS 
FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST WILL BE A HINDRANCE TOWARDS 94S REACHING 
TROPICAL CYCLONE STRENGTH IN THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THE ECMWF AND GFS 
ENSEMBLE SYSTEMS CONTINUE TO AGREE ON TRACK WITH ECENS SHOWING STRONGER 
INTENSITY THE FURTHER SOUTH 94S TRAVELS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE 
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 23 TO 28 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS 
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1003 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A 
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS MEDIUM.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
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