ABIO10 PGTW 121800
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN/121800Z-
131800ZMAR2026//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
9.3S 54.9E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 9.9S 54.7E, APPROXIMATELY 320 NM SOUTH OF 
SEYCHELLES. ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY DEPICTS A DEVELOPING BUT ELONGATED 
LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION EMBEDDED IN THE MONSOON TROUGH, OBSCURED BY 
FLARING CONVECTION. A 121416Z WSF-M MICROWAVE PASS REVEALED A MOSTLY 
LINEAR CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE TROUGH 
AXIS. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS MODERATELY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR 
DEVELOPMENT OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE WITH MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (15 
TO 20 KTS), WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (28 TO 29 DEGREES CELSIUS), 
AND GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC MODELS HAVE 
DECREASED THE PROJECTED PEAK INTENSITY COMPARED TO 24 HOURS AGO, WITH 
THE EXCEPTION OF NAVGEM. HOWEVER, GLOBAL MODELS GENERALLY AGREE ON SOME 
DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS PRIOR TO THE ENCROACHMENT OF A DRY 
AIR MASS FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST. THE ECMWF, GFS, AND GOOGLE DEEPMIND 
ENSEMBLE SYSTEMS CONTINUE TO AGREE ON A MODEST CHANCE OF TROPICAL 
CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT. MODELS ALSO AGREE ON A GENERALLY SOUTHEASTERLY 
TRACK OF 94S OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE 
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS 
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A 
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO 
MEDIUM.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
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