ABIO10 PGTW 111800
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN/111800Z-
121800ZMAR2026//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94S) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 9.3S 
54.9E, APPROXIMATELY 273 NM SOUTH OF SEYCHELLES. ENHANCED INFRARED 
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS FLARING CONVECTION ALONG AN ANALYZED SURFACE 
TROUGH. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR 
DEVELOPMENT OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE, WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (10 TO 
15KTS), WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (29 TO 30 C), AND MODERATE 
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODELS ARE IN 
GOOD AGREEANCE ON THE STEADY DEVELOPMENT OF 94S OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS 
AS IT TRACKS GENERALLY EASTWARD AND ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS REMAIN 
FAVORABLE. GFS IS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE MODEL. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE 
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS 
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1010 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A 
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
NNNN