ABPW10 PGTW 100600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH 
PACIFIC OCEANS/100600Z-110600ZMAR2026//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/100251ZMAR2026//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
10.0N 139.7E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 11.2N 137.1E, APPROXIMATELY 119 NM 
NORTH-NORTHWEST OF YAP. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 
092354Z METOP-C ASCAT PASS DEPICT AN ELONGATED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION 
EMBEDDED IN FLARING CONVECTION WITH SWATHS OF ELEVATED WINDS ALONG THE 
EASTERN AND NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERIES. THE CIRCULATION IS CONSIDERED TOO 
ILL-DEFINED TO JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. ENVIRONMENTAL 
ANALYSIS REVEALS A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH 
MODERATE POLEWARD UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW ALOFT, MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR 
(15-20 KTS), AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (28-29 C). DETERMINISTIC 
AND ENSEMBLE MODELS AGREE ON SOME DEGREE OF CONSOLIDATION OVER THE NEXT 
24 HOURS PRIOR TO VERTICAL SHEAR BECOMING LESS FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT 
IN 24 TO 48 HOURS. MODELS ALSO AGREE ON A GRADUAL TRANSIT NORTHEASTWARD 
AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE 
MARIANAS DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE 
ESTIMATED AT 23 TO 28 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO 
BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT 
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS HIGH. SEE REF A (WTPN21 
PGTW 100300) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
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