ABPW10 PGTW 091230
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH 
PACIFIC OCEANS/REISSUED/091230Z-100600ZMAR2026//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
10.0N 139.7E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 10.5N 138.8E, APPROXIMATELY 74 NM 
NORTHEAST OF YAP. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 
090414Z AMSR2 89GHZ PASS DEPICTS AN ELONGATED CIRCULATION WITH 
SCATTERED CONVECTION. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS A MARGINALLY 
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH MODERATE POLEWARD UPPER-
LEVEL OUTFLOW, LOW VERTICAL WINDSHEAR (10-15 KTS), AND WARM SEA 
SURFACE TEMPERATURES (28-29 C). DETERMINISTIC MODELS CONTINUE TO BE 
HESITANT REGARDING THE FORMATION OF 95W WITH GFS STILL BEING THE MOST 
AGGRESSIVE MODEL. ENSEMBLE MODELS HAVE BECOME SLIGHTLY MORE CONSISTENT 
WITH THE PLACEMENT OF ITS MEMBERS AND CONTINUES TO TRACK SLOWLY 
TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED 
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL 
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE 
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS 
REMAINS MEDIUM.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY:
      (1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (REMNANTS 24P) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 
24.3S 153.4E, APPROXIMATELY 197 NM NORTH OF BRISBANE, AUSTRALIA. THE 
SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY CLASSIFIED AS A SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE, GENERALLY  
CHARACTERIZED AS HAVING BOTH TROPICAL AND MIDLATITUDE CYCLONE 
FEATURES. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A 
HIGHLY ELONGATED CIRCULATION THAT HAS EMERGED BACK OVER WATER NEAR THE 
EASTERN COAST OF AUSTRALIA. A 091035Z METOP-B ASCAT PASS REVEALED THE 
ELONGATED NATURE OF THE WIND FIELD WITH 30-35 KNOT WINDS IN CLOSE 
PROXIMITY TO THE ASSESSED CENTER. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE 
TRACKING QUICKLY EASTWARD, DRIVEN BY THE COMBINED INFLUENCE OF A 
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH AND A PASSING MAJOR SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO 
THE SOUTH. TROPICAL TRANSITION IS ANALYZED TO BE UNLIKELY DUE TO THE 
INTERACTION WITH THE STRONG UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS 
INDICATES THAT THE SYSTEM IS WITHIN AN UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT 
CHARACTERIZED BY STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND WARM (26-27 C) SEA 
SURFACE TEMPERATURES GREATLY OFFSET BY VERY HIGH (35-40 KTS) 
NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR AND SIGNIFICANT DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT FROM THE WEST. 
DESPITE THE UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT, THE WIND 
FIELD ASSOCIATED WITH 24P IS LIKLY TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE NEXT 48 
HOURS DUE TO BAROCLINIC FORCING. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE 
ESTIMATED AT 30 TO 35 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED 
TO BE NEAR 995 MB. FOR HAZARDS AND WARNINGS, REFERENCE THE FLEET 
WEATHER CENTER SAN DIEGO HIGH WINDS AND SEAS PRODUCT OR REFER TO LOCAL 
WMO DESIGNATED FORECAST AUTHORITY. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT 
OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
      (2) NO OTHER SUBTROPICAL SYSTEMS.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: ADDED AREA IN 2.C.(1) AS A LOW.//
NNNN