ABPW10 PGTW 080600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH 
PACIFIC OCEANS/080600Z-090600ZMAR2026//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
7.1N 140.7E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 11.0N 140.2E, APPROXIMATELY 152 NM 
NORTHEAST OF YAP. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A 
HIGHLY ELONGATED CIRCULATION WITH SPORADIC DISORGANIZED CONVECTION. A 
080035Z METOP-C ASCAT PASS SHOWS THAT 95W IS PRIMARILY COMPOSED OF 
TROUGHING THAT EXTENDS TO THE MARIANAS. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS 
REVEALS A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH 
MODERATE POLEWARD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW, LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL 
WINDSHEAR (15-20 KTS), AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (28-29 C). 
BOTH THE GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODELS ARE INCONSISTENT WITH 
THE FORMATION OF 95W. OUT OF THE DETERMINISTIC MODELS, GFS IS THE MOST 
AGGRESSIVE BUT HAS BACKED OFF ON DEVELOPMENT OVER THE PAST FEW MODEL 
RUNS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. 
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE 
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN 
THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS MEDIUM.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
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