WTXS21 PGTW 051430
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 93S)//
REF/A/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/041421Z MAR 26//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
140 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 17.5S 116.5E TO 17.6S 111.4E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 28 TO 33 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 051200Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 17.5S 116.4E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS:
THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 16.1S 121.0E 
IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 17.5S 116.4E, APPROXIMATELY 314 NM NORTH OF 
LEARMONTH. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A PARTIALLY 
EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WITH DEEP FLARING CONVECTION LARGELY 
DISPLACED TO THE WEST OF THE CIRCULATION. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS DEPICTS 
A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH GOOD EQUATORWARD 
UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW, LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (15-20 KTS), AND 
WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (29-30 C). GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC MODELS 
DELAY THE CONSOLIDATION OF 93S WHILE ENSEMBLE MODELS SHOW FURTHER 
DEVELOPMENT IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. OVERALL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH A 
WESTWARD TRACK OVER THE NEXT 48-72 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS 
ARE ESTIMATED AT 28 TO 33 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED 
TO BE NEAR 997 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT 
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH. 
THIS SUPERSEDES REF A (WTPN21 PGTW 041430).
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 
061430Z.
//
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