ABIO10 PGTW 041800
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN 
041800Z-051800ZMAR2026//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/041352ZMAR2026//
REF/B/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/041421ZMAR2026// 
NARR/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING. REF B IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE 
FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 04MAR26 1200Z, TROPICAL CYCLONE 25S (TWENTYFIVE) WAS 
LOCATED NEAR 11.3S 110.2E, APPROXIMATELY 697 NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF 
LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, AND HAD TRACKED EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AT 09 KNOTS 
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE 
ESTIMATED AT 35 KNOTS GUSTING TO 45 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTXS31 PGTW 
041500) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
16.1S 121.0E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 16.0S 120.0E, APPROXIMATELY 176 NM 
NORTHWEST OF BROOME, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE 
IMAGERY DEPICTS AN EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WITH 
CONVECTIVE BANDING BEGINNING TO WRAP ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY. 
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS DEPICTS A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR 
DEVELOPMENT WITH MODERATE EQUATORWARD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW, LOW TO 
MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (15-20 KTS), AND WARM SEA SURFACE 
TEMPERATURES (29-30 C). DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE SLIGHTLY HESITANT ON 
THE FORMATION OF 93S WHILE ENSEMBLE MODELS SHOW FURTHER DEVELOPMENT 
IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. OVERALL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH A WESTWARD 
TRACK OVER THE NEXT 48-72 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE 
ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED 
TO BE NEAR 996 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT 
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS HIGH. SEE 
REF B (WTXS21 PGTW 041430) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
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