WTXS21 PGTW 041430
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 93S)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 15.9S 120.5E TO 17.2S 112.9E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 041400Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 16.0S 120.0E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 04
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
16.1S 121.0E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 16.0S 120.0E, APPROXIMATELY 176 NM 
NORTHWEST OF BROOME, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE 
IMAGERY DEPICTS AN EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WITH 
CONVECTIVE BANDING BEGINNING TO WRAP ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY. 
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS DEPICTS A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR 
DEVELOPMENT WITH MODERATE EQUATORWARD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW, LOW TO 
MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (15-20 KTS), AND WARM SEA SURFACE 
TEMPERATURES (29-30 C). DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE SLIGHTLY HESITANT ON 
THE FORMATION OF 93S WHILE ENSEMBLE MODELS SHOW FURTHER DEVELOPMENT 
IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. OVERALL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH A WESTWARD 
TRACK OVER THE NEXT 48-72 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE 
ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO 
BE NEAR 996 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT 
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 
051430Z.//
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