ABIO10 PGTW 040300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN 
REISSUED/040300Z-041800ZMAR2026//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
11.7S 108.8E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 11.6S 109.4E, APPROXIMATELY 228 NM 
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF CHRISTMAS ISLAND. ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE 
IMAGERY (EIR) DEPICTS A PARTIALLY OBSCURED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION 
CENTER (LLCC) FEATURING FLARING CONVECTION DEVELOPING ALONG THE 
NORTHERN PERIPHERY AND SHEARING TO THE WEST, AND EXPOSED SHALLOW 
BANDING FEATURES ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN PERIPHERY. A 031422Z ASCAT 
(METOP-B) PARTIAL PASS REVEALS 30KT WINDS TO THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF 
A TIGHT CIRCULATION CENTER. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS MODERATELY 
FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH WARM SEA SURFACE 
TEMPERATURES (28 TO 29 C), MODERATE EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, CONTRASTED BY 
THE STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (30 TO 40KTS). GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC AND 
ENSEMBLE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE FORMATION AND GENERAL 
EASTWARD TRACK OF 90S IN THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED 
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 28 TO 33 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL 
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE 
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS 
REMAINS HIGH. SEE REF A (WTXS21 PGTW 030630) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
16.4S 122.9E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 16.1S 121.0E, APPROXIMATELY 132 NM 
NORTHWEST OF BROOME. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) 
DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION THAT HAS NOW MOVED 
RAPIDLY OFFSHORE, FEATURING DEEP CONVECTION ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY 
OF THE CIRCULATION. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS FAVORABLE 
CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR 
(15 TO 20KTS), WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (30 TO 31 C), GLOBAL 
DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE STEADY 
DEVELOPMENT AND GENERAL WEST TRACK OF 93S IN THE NEXT 36 TO 48 HOURS. 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 23 TO 28 KNOTS. 
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 998 MB. THE 
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN 
THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.
      (3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADED AREA IN PARA 2.B.(2) TO 
MEDIUM.//
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