ABPW10 PGTW 031930
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH 
PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/031930Z-040600ZMAR2026//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/031921ZMAR2026//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 91P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
14.4S 151.7E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 14.0S 150.7E, APPROXIMATELY 144 NM 
NORTHEAST OF WILLIS ISLAND. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY 
DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WITH CONVECTIVE 
BANDING BEGINNING TO WRAP ALONG THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLES. 
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR 
DEVELOPMENT WITH MODERATE EQUATORWARD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW, LOW 
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (10-15 KTS), AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES 
(29-30 C). GLOBAL MODELS SHOW 91P TRACKING WESTWARD TOWARDS THE COAST 
OF AUSTRALIA OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS AS IT CONTINUES TO DEVELOP. 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 28 TO 33 KNOTS. 
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 998 MB. THE 
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN 
THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO HIGH. SEE REF A (WTPS21 PGTW 031930) 
FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
15.4S 137.1E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 15.4S 137.1E, APPROXIMATELY 177 NM 
SOUTH OF GROVE AIRPORT. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY 
DEPICTS A POORLY DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WITH 
SCATTERED BURSTS CONVECTION. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS A 
MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH FAIR EQUATORWARD 
UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW, LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (15-20 KTS), 
WARM (30-31 C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, AND TERRAIN INTERACTION. 
DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE HESITANT ON THE FORMATION OF 92P, SHOWING THE 
CIRCULATION TRACKING WESTWARD AND STAYING OVER LAND OVER THE NEXT 48 
HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 997 MB. THE 
POTENTIAL FOR DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE 
NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW. 
      (3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADED AREA IN PARA. 2.B.(1) TO 
HIGH.//
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