ABIO10 PGTW 031800
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN 
OCEAN/031800Z-041800ZMAR2026//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/030621ZMAR2026//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
11.8S 107.5E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 11.9S 108.2E, APPROXIMATELY 168 NM 
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF CHRISTMAS ISLAND. ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE 
IMAGERY (EIR) DEPICTS A PARTIALLY OBSCURED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION 
CENTER (LLCC) FEATURING FLARING CONVECTION DEVELOPING ALONG THE 
NORTHERN PERIPHERY AND SHEARING TO THE WEST, AND EXPOSED SHALLOW 
BANDING FEATURES ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN PERIPHERY. A 031422Z ASCAT 
(METOP-B) PARTIAL PASS REVEALS 30KT WINDS TO THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF 
A TIGHT CIRCULATION CENTER.  ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS MODERATELY 
FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH WARM SEA SURFACE 
TEMPERATURES (28 TO 29 C), MODERATE EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, CONTRASTED BY 
THE STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (30 TO 40KTS). GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC 
AND ENSEMBLE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE FORMATION AND GENERAL 
EASTWARD TRACK OF 90S IN THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED 
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 28 TO 33 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL 
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1001 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE 
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS 
REMAINS HIGH. SEE REF A (WTXS21 PGTW 030630) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
17.1S 122.6E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 16.5S 123.4E, APPROXIMATELY 37 NM 
SOUTHEAST OF ADELE ISLAND. ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY (EIR) 
DEPICTS A SLOWLY CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION ON THE 
NORTHWESTERN COAST OF AUSTRALIA, COVERED BY CIRRUS BLOWOFF FROM DEEP 
CONVECTION FLARING ON THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY. SURFACE 
OBSERVATIONS FROM THE REGION SUGGEST THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER 
(LLCC) IS CURRENTLY POSITIONED WITHIN KING SOUND, NORTH OF DERBY. 
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT 
WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (15 TO 20KTS), WARM SEA SURFACE 
TEMPERATURES (30 TO 31 C), AND GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW. GLOBAL 
DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE STEADY 
DEVELOPMENT AND GENERAL WEST TRACK OF 93S IN THE NEXT 36 TO 48 HOURS. 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. 
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. THE 
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN 
THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.
      (3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
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