WTXS21 PGTW 030630
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 90S)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 11.8S 106.8E TO 11.8S 112.8E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 28 TO 33 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 030600Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 11.8S 107.5E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING EASTWARD AT 04 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED 
NEAR 11.0S 105.5E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 11.8S 107.5E, APPROXIMATELY 135 
NM SOUTHEAST OF CHRISTMAS ISLAND. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE 
IMAGERY DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING PARTIALLY OBSCURED LOW LEVEL 
CIRCULATION CENTER WITH CONVECTIVE BANDING ALONG THE SOUTHERN 
PERIPHERY. A 030227Z ASCAT PASS SHOWS A SWATH OF 25-30 KT WINDS ALONG 
THE EASTERN PERIPHERY. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS A FAVORABLE 
ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH STRONG EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, LOW TO 
MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (15-20 KTS), AND WARM SEA SURFACE 
TEMPERATURES (28-29 C). GLOBAL MODELS SHOW 90S TRACKING EASTWARD AS IT 
CONSOLIDATES OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS 
ARE ESTIMATED AT 28 TO 33 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED 
TO BE NEAR 998 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT 
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 
040630Z.//
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