ABIO10 PGTW 030630
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN 
REISSUED/030630Z-031800ZMAR2026//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.// 
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
17.6S 122.4E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 17.1S 122.6E, APPROXIMATELY 54 NM 
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF BROOME. ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS 
REVEALS A BROAD DISORGANIZED REGION OF TROFING ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN 
COAST OF AUSTRALIA. ANALYSIS OF SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM BROOME 
SUGGEST THE TROF AXIS, OR POTENTIAL DEVELOPING ROTATION, PASSED NORTH 
OF THE STATION AT APPROXIMATELY 1200Z AND HAS NOW MOVED OVER WATER. 
DISORGANIZED CONVECTION CONTINUES TO DEVELOP ALONG THE NORTHERN 
PERIPHERY OF THE CIRCULATION. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS 
MODERATELY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH HIGH VERTICAL 
WIND SHEAR (20 TO 30KTS), VERY WARM NEARBY SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES 
(30 TO 31 C), AND MODERATE POLEWARD OUTFLOW. GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC AND 
ENSEMBLE MODELS PREDICT GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT AS IT TRANSITS WESTWARD 
OVER THE NEXT 48-72 HOURS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE 
ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED 
TO BE NEAR 1002 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT 
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.
      (2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED 
NEAR 11.0S 105.5E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 11.8S 107.5E, APPROXIMATELY 135 
NM SOUTHEAST OF CHRISTMAS ISLAND. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE 
IMAGERY DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING PARTIALLY OBSCURED LOW LEVEL 
CIRCULATION CENTER WITH CONVECTIVE BANDING ALONG THE SOUTHERN 
PERIPHERY. A 030227Z ASCAT PASS SHOWS A SWATH OF 25-30 KT WINDS ALONG 
THE EASTERN PERIPHERY. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS A FAVORABLE 
ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH STRONG EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, LOW TO 
MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (15-20 KTS), AND WARM SEA SURFACE 
TEMPERATURES (28-29 C). GLOBAL MODELS SHOW 90S TRACKING EASTWARD AS IT 
CONSOLIDATES OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE 
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 28 TO 33 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS 
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 998 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A 
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO 
HIGH. SEE REF A (WTXS21 PGTW 030630) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADED AREA IN PARA. 2.B.(2) TO 
HIGH.//
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