ABPW10 PGTW 030230
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH 
PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/030230Z-030600ZMAR2026//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
16.2S 136.9E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 16.5S 136.8E, APPROXIMATELY 138 NM 
WEST OF MORNINGTON ISLAND. ANIMATED ENHANCED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY 
(MSI) REVEALS STRONG FLARING CONVECTION OBSCURING THE LOW-LEVEL 
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITHIN THE GULF OF CARPENTARIA.  
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS FOR THIS AREA IS FAVORABLE, WITH STRONG 
WESTWARD AND EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT, WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES 
(29-30 C), AND LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (15-20 KTS). GLOBAL 
DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODELS AGREE ON A QUASI-STATIONARY 
DEVELOPMENT OVER THE GULF BEFORE MOVING SOUTHWEST FURTHER INTO 
AUSTRALIA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 13 TO 17 
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1009 MB. THE 
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN 
THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.
      (2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 91P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
15.2S 152.3E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 14.9S 107.0E, APPROXIMATELY 140 NM 
NORTHEAST OF WILLIS ISLAND. ANIMATED ENHANCED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY 
(MSI) DEPICTS A QUICKLY CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION EMBEDDED 
WITHIN A TROUGH, FEATURING DEEP CONVECTION BEGINNING TO DEVELOP NEAR 
THE CENTER. A PARTIAL 022230Z ASCAT (METOP-B) PASS REVEALS STRONG 
WINDS (20 TO 25KTS) ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE TROF AND 20-25 
KTS ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY, AND A STEADILY DECREASING RADIUS OF 
MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW). ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS DEPICT FAVORABLE 
CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (15 TO 
20KTS), WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE (29 TO 30 C), AND GOOD POLEWARD 
OUTFLOW. GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODELS ARE DEPICTING STEADY 
DEVELOPMENT OF 91P AND A GENERAL WEST TRACK OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 48 
HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 13 TO 18 
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1009 MB. THE 
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN 
THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.
      (3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADED AREA IN PARA 2.B.(2) TO 
MEDIUM.//
NNNN