ABIO10 PGTW 030230
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN 
REISSUED/030230Z-031800ZMAR2026//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
17.6S 122.4E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 17.1S 122.6E, APPROXIMATELY 54 NM 
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF BROOME. ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS 
REVEALS A BROAD DISORGANIZED REGION OF TROFING ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN 
COAST OF AUSTRALIA. ANALYSIS OF SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM BROOME 
SUGGEST THE TROF AXIS, OR POTENTIAL DEVELOPING ROTATION, PASSED NORTH 
OF THE STATION AT APPROXIMATELY 1200Z AND HAS NOW MOVED OVER WATER. 
DISORGANIZED CONVECTION CONTINUES TO DEVELOP ALONG THE NORTHERN 
PERIPHERY OF THE CIRCULATION. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS 
MODERATELY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH HIGH VERTICAL 
WIND SHEAR (20 TO 30KTS), VERY WARM NEARBY SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES 
(30 TO 31 C), AND MODERATE POLEWARD OUTFLOW. GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC AND 
ENSEMBLE MODELS PREDICT GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT AS IT TRANSITS WESTWARD 
OVER THE NEXT 48-72 HOURS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE 
ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED 
TO BE NEAR 1002 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT 
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.
      (2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
11.0S 105.5E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 11.8S 107.0E, APPROXIMATELY 115 NM 
SOUTHEAST OF CHRISTMAS ISLAND. ANIMATED ENHANCED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY 
(MSI) DEPICTS A PARTIALLY EXPOSED, COMPACT LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION 
CENTER, AND A LARGE AREA OF PERSISTENT CONVECTION DISPLACED TOO THE 
WEST OF THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). ENVIRONMENTAL 
ANALYSIS REVEALS MODERATELY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH 
WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (28 TO 29 C) AND GOOD SOUTHWESTERLY 
UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW, CONTRASTED BY THE HIGH EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND 
SHEAR (VWS) OF 30 TO 40KTS. HOWEVER, THE CIMSS SHEAR ANALYSIS MAY BE 
TOO HIGH, BASED ON THE OVERALL STRUCTURAL APPEARANCE IN THE MSI. 
GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODELS DEPICT 90S TAKING A GENERAL 
EAST TRACK AND THE RAPID DEVELOPMENT OF 90S IN THE NEXT 36-48 HOURS. 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 23 TO 27 KNOTS. 
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1003 MB. THE 
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN 
THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.
      (3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADED AREA IN PARA 2.B.(2) TO 
MEDIUM.//
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