ABIO10 PGTW 021800
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN 
OCEAN/021800Z-031800ZMAR2026//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
16.5S 122.0E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 17.6S 122.4E, APPROXIMATELY 25 NM 
NORTH-NORTHEAST OF BROOME. ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS 
REVEALS A BROAD DISORGANIZED REGION OF TROFING ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN 
COAST OF AUSTRALIA. ANALYSIS OF SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM BROOME 
SUGGEST THE TROF AXIS, OR POTENTIAL DEVELOPING ROTATION, PASSED NORTH 
OF THE STATION AT APPROXIMATELY 1200Z AND HAS NOW MOVED OVER WATER. 
DISORGANIZED CONVECTION CONTINUES TO DEVELOP ALONG THE NORTHERN 
PERIPHERY OF THE CIRCULATION. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS MODERATELY 
FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH HIGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (20 
TO 30KTS), VERY WARM NEARBY SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (30 TO 31 C), AND 
MODERATE POLEWARD OUTFLOW. GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODELS 
PREDICT GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT AS IT TRANSITS WESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 48-72 
HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. 
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1002 MB. THE 
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN 
THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.
      (2) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90S) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 11.0S 
105.5E, APPROXIMATELY 32 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF CHRISTMAS ISLAND. 
ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A COMPACT LOW-LEVEL 
CIRCULATION COVERED BY FLARING CONVECTION. A 021041Z WSF-M 37GHZ 
MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALED A COMPACT INNER-CORE BEGINNING TO DEVELOP, 
WITH WELL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL BANDING FEATURES STARTING TO WRAP INTO THE 
LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS 
MODERATELY FAVORABLE CONDITION FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH WARM SEA SURFACE 
TEMPERATURES (28 TO 29 C) AND MODERATE SOUTH WESTERLY UPPER-LEVEL 
OUTFLOW, CONTRASTED BY VERY HIGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (30 TO 40KTS). 
HOWEVER, THE CIMSS SHEAR ANALYSIS MAY BE TOO HIGH, BASED ON THE OVERALL 
STRUCTURAL APPEARANCE IN THE EIR IMAGERY. GLOBAL MODELS SHOW 
INTENSIFICATION OF 90S IN THE NEXT 48 HOURS, ENSEMBLE MODELS ALSO SHOW 
THE STEADY DEVELOPMENT AND EAST TRACK OF 90S OVER THE NEXT 48-72 HOURS. 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. 
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE 
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN 
THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
      (3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
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