ABPW10 PGTW 020600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH 
PACIFIC OCEANS/020600Z-030600ZMAR2026//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 91P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
16.9S 152.5E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 16.4S 153.0E, APPROXIMATELY 405 NM EAST 
OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY (MSI) 
DEPICTS PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION OVER A WEAKLY DEFINED LOW-LEVEL 
CIRCULATION EMBEDDED WITHIN A LOWER-LEVEL TROUGH, WITH ELEVATED WINDS TO 
THE SOUTH WRAPPING ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY, AS DEPICTED IN A 012327Z 
METOP-C ASCAT PASS. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS FOR THE AREA INDICATES A 
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT, WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (10-
15 KTS), WARM SEA-SURFACE TEMPERATURES (29-30 C), AND GOOD POLEWARD AND 
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 91P 
WILL CONTINUE MOVING NORTH-NORTHWEST WITH EXPECTED GRADUAL 
INTENSIFICATION AS IT INTERACTS WITH THE SOUTH PACIFIC CONVERGENCE ZONE 
OVER THE NEXT 48-72 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED 
AT 23 TO 28 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 
1002 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL 
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.
      (2) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92P) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 16.7S 
140.3E, APPROXIMATELY 75 NM EAST OF MORNINGTON ISLAND, AUSTRALIA. 
ANIMATED ENHANCED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY (MSI) REVEALS STRONG FLARING 
CONVECTION OBSCURING THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITHIN THE 
GULF OF CARPENTARIA.  ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS FOR THIS AREA IS FAVORABLE, 
WITH STRONG WESTWARD AND EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT, WARM SEA SURFACE 
TEMPERATURES (29-30 C), AND LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (15-20 
KTS). GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODELS AGREE ON A QUASI-
STATIONARY DEVELOPMENT OVER THE GULF BEFORE MOVING SOUTHWEST FURTHER 
INTO AUSTRALIA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 13 TO 
18 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1009 MB. 
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE 
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
      (3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
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