WTXS31 PGTW 262100 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (HORACIO) WARNING NR 015// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (HORACIO) WARNING NR 015 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 261800Z --- NEAR 31.9S 69.4E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 220 DEGREES AT 01 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY BECOMING SUBTROPICAL RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 31.9S 69.4E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 270600Z --- 33.0S 68.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY SUBTROPICAL RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 262100Z POSITION NEAR 32.2S 69.2E. 26FEB26. TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (HORACIO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 961 NM SOUTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 01 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S WITH A FULLY EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS NOW ENTIRELY VOID OF DEEP CONVECTION. A 261640Z METOP-C ASCAT IMAGE REVEALED MAXIMUM WINDS OF 40 KTS WITHIN THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN PERIPHERIES. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS NOW ANALYZED TO BE OVER 50 KTS FROM THE NORTHWEST AND SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE AROUND 22-23 C, CREATING A HIGHLY UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT. 22S IS FORECAST TO TRACK SOUTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS AS RIDGING BREIFLY EXTENDS TO THE SOUTH OF THE VORTEX. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO COMPELTE SUBTROPICAL TRANSITION BY TAU 12 AS THE VORTEX CONTINUES TO SHALLOW OUT AND WEAKEN. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 261800Z IS 995 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 261800Z IS 20 FEET.// NNNN