WTXS21 PGTW 200100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 97S) REISSUED//
REF/A/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/190100ZFEB26//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTXS21 PGTW 190100)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
130 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 14.4S 76.2E TO 17.0S 72.6E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 32 TO 38 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 200000Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 14.5S 76.0E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 04
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 97S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
12.9S 76.3E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 14.5S 76.0E, APPROXIMATELY 476 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY 
(EIR) DEPICTS DEEP CONVECTION STARTING TO BUILD OVER THE CENTER OF THE 
LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). AN 200600Z AMSR2 MICROWAVE IMAGE 
REVEALS FRAGMENTED CONVECTION TO THE WEST AND THE SOUTH OF THE (LLCC) AT 
THAT TIME, WITH LOW-LEVEL CLOUD BANDING SPIRALING INTO THE LLCC. 
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS FOR THE AREA INDICATES FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR 
DEVELOPMENT WITH WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (28-29 DEGREES CELSIUS), 
MODERATE POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT, A POCKET OF DEEP MOISTURE ENCOMPASSING 
THE LLCC, AND LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (10-15 KNOTS) THAT HAS DECREASED 
DURING THE PAST 12 HOURS. BASED ON RECENT ORGANIZATIONAL TRENDS, 
DEVELOPMENT IS ASSESSED TO BE IMMINENT. MODELS GENERALLY AGREE ON 97S 
CONTINUING TO TURN SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AND THEN SOUTHWESTWARD DURING THE 
NEXT 24 HOURS WHILE STEADILY INTENSIFYING. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE 
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 32 TO 38 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS 
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 994 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A 
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS HIGH. THIS 
SUPERSEDES REF A (WTXS21 PGTW 190100).
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 
210100Z.
//
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