ABIO10 PGTW 191800
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN 
OCEAN/191800Z-201800ZFEB2026//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/190051ZFEB2026// 
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.// 
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 97S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
12.9S 76.3E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 14.3S 76.1E, APPROXIMATELY 460 NM 
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE 
IMAGERY (EIR) DEPICTS DEEP CONVECTION STARTING TO BUILD OVER THE 
CENTER OF THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). AN EARLIER 191106Z 
SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS FRAGMENTED CONVECTION TO THE WEST AND 
THE SOUTH OF THE (LLCC) AT THAT TIME. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS FOR THE 
AREA INDICATES FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH WARM SEA 
SURFACE TEMPERATURES (28-29 DEGREES CELSIUS), MODERATE POLEWARD 
OUTFLOW ALOFT, A POCKET OF DEEP MOISTURE ENCOMPASSING THE LLCC, AND 
LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (10-15 KNOTS) THAT HAS DECREASED DURING THE 
PAST 12 HOURS. PHYSICAL AND AI-BASED MODELS ALIKE CONTINUE TO HAVE A 
STRONG CONSENSUS FOR SHORT-TERM DEVELOPMENT. THE ECMWF AND GFS GLOBAL 
MODELS SHOW THE CYCLONE REACHING WARNING THRESHOLD IN 18 TO 30 HOURS, 
THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN IN ABOUT 24 HOURS, AND THE GOOGLE DEEPMIND 
ENSEMBLE MEAN IN ABOUT 12 HOURS. MODELS GENERALLY AGREE ON 97S 
CONTINUING TO MOVE SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AND THEN SOUTHWESTWARD DURING 
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 27 
TO 32 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 
MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL 
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS HIGH. SEE REF A 
(WTXS21 PGTW 190100) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (SUBTROPICAL STORM 21S) PREVIOUSLY 
LOCATED NEAR 31.5S 42.1E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 36.8S 42.3E, 
APPROXIMATELY 990 NM SOUTHEAST OF EAST LONDON, SOUTH AFRICA. ANIMATED 
ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY (EIR) DEPICTS A WEAKLY DEFINED 
LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH STRATIFORM PRECIPITATION ON 
THE SOUTH SIDE. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS FOR THE AREA INDICATES 
UNFAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR TRANSITION TO A FULLY TROPICAL SYSTEM WITH 
HIGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (OVER 30 KNOTS), COOL SEA SURFACE 
TEMPERATURES (BELOW 21 DEGREES CELSIUS) AND WEAK POLEWARD OUTFLOW 
ALOFT. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 21S WILL BECOME 
EXTRATROPICAL AS IT TRACKS SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE UPPER-LEVEL 
WESTERLIES OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE 
ESTIMATED AT 37 TO 43 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED 
TO BE NEAR 991 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT 
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.
      (2) NO OTHER SUBTROPICAL SYSTEMS.//
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