ABIO10 PGTW 182000
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN 
REISSUED/182000Z-191800ZFEB2026//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 97S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
11.8S 74.8E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.5S 76.1E, APPROXIMATELY 375 NM 
SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE 
IMAGERY (EIR) DEPICTS A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER 
(LLCC) WITH PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION IN THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT. A 
181535Z ASCAT-B PASS REVEALS 25-30 KNOT WINDS CONSOLIDATING IN THE 
NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN PERIPHERIES. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS FOR THE AREA 
INDICATES A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH 
MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (15-20 KNOTS), WARM SEA SURFACE 
TEMPERATURES (28-29 C), AND MODERATE POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT. GLOBAL 
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON A STEADY DEVELOPMENT AND A SOUTH-
SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE 
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 27 TO 32 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS 
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A 
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS MEDIUM.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (TC 21S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
31.5S 42.1E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 36.8S 42.3E, APPROXIMATELY 876 NM 
SOUTH OF EUROPA ISLAND.THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY CLASSIFIED AS A 
SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE, GENERALLY CHARACTERIZED AS HAVING BOTH TROPICAL 
AND MIDLATITUDE CYCLONE FEATURES. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE 
IMAGERY (EIR) DEPICTS A FULLY EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLCC) 
WITH FLARING CONVECTION LOSING INTENSITY IN THE SOUTHERN QUADRANT. 
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS FOR THE AREA INDICATES UNFAVORABLE CONDITIONS 
FOR TRANSITION TO A FULLY TROPICAL SYSTEM WITH LOW TO MODERATE 
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (15-20 KNOTS), COOL SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (21-
22 DEGREES CELSIUS) AND WEAK POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT. GLOBAL MODELS ARE 
IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 21S WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES FARTHER 
SOUTH OVER PROGRESSIVELY COLDER WATERS. FOR HAZARDS AND WARNINGS, 
REFERENCE THE FLEET WEATHER CENTER SAN DIEGO HIGH WINDS AND SEAS 
PRODUCT OR REFER TO LOCAL WMO DESIGNATED FORECAST AUTHORITY. MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 37 TO 43 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA 
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 991 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE 
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS 
IS LOW.
      (2) NO OTHER SUBTROPICAL SYSTEMS.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: DUE TO FINAL WARNING EXPIRING AND 21S 
BECOMING FULLY SUBTROPICAL LISTED IN PARA 2.C.(1).//
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