ABIO10 PGTW 071800
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN 
OCEAN/071800Z-081800ZFEB2026//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/071351ZFEB2026//
REF/B/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/070721ZFEB2026//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AND REF B IS A TROPICAL 
CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 07FEB26 1200Z, TROPICAL CYCLONE 20S (MITCHELL) WAS 
LOCATED NEAR 20.0S 116.7E, APPROXIMATELY 201 NM NORTHEAST OF 
LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, AND HAD TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER 
THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 
75 KNOTS GUSTING TO 90 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTXS31 PGTW 071500) FOR 
FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
18.0S 58.1E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 18.2S 57.5E, APPROXIMATELY 130 NM 
NORTH OF MAURITIUS. ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY (EIR) DEPICTS 
A SLOWLY CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH DEEP 
CONVECTION BUILDING OVER THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY. ENVIRONMENTAL 
ANALYSIS REVEALS MARGINALLY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH 
LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (10-15 KTS), MODERATE UPPER-LEVEL POLEWARD 
OUTFLOW, DRY AIR TO THE SOUTH, AND WARM (28-29 C) SEA SURFACE 
TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT OF GRADUAL 
DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH A WESTWARD TRACK TOWARD 
MADAGASCAR. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 28 TO 33 
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE 
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN 
THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS HIGH. SEE REF B (WTXS21 PGTW 070730) FOR 
FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
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