ABIO10 PGTW 070730
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN 
REISSUED/070730Z-071800ZFEB2026//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/070151ZFEB2026//
REF/B/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/070721ZFEB2026//
NARR/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING. REF B IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE 
FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 07FEB26 0000Z, TROPICAL CYCLONE 20S (MITCHELL) WAS 
LOCATED NEAR 19.0S 118.4E, APPROXIMATELY 79 NM NORTH OF PORT HEDLAND, 
AUSTRALIA, AND HAD TRACKED WEST- SOUTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE 
PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 60 
KNOTS GUSTING TO 75 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTXS31 PGTW 070300) FOR FURTHER 
DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
16.5S 59.6E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 18.0S 58.1E, APPROXIMATELY 141 NM 
NORTH-NORTHEAST OF MAURITIUS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE 
IMAGERY DEPICTS AN OBSCURED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION, WITH PERSISTENT 
CONVECTION KEEPING THE LLC COVERED FROM VIEW. A TIMELY 070511Z ASCAT-
B PARTIAL PASS REVEALED THE LLC TO BE HIGHLY ELONGATED ALONG A 
NORTHWEST-SOUTHEAST AXIS, WITH SURPRISINGLY LIGHT WINDS CONSIDERING 
THE STRENGTH OF THE CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST (CDO). MAXIMUM WINDS OF 
JUST 25 KNOTS WERE FOUND ALONG THE EASTERN FLANK OF THE LLC, THOUGH 
IT IS HIGHLY LIKELY THAT MORE ELEVATED WINDS ARE LOCATED ON THE 
NORTHWESTERN SIDE OF THE CIRCULATION, WHICH THE ASCAT MISSED. 
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT 
WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (10 TO 15KTS), WARM SEA SURFACE 
TEMPERATURES (28 TO 29 C), AND GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. HOWEVER, THE 
VORTEX REMAINS DISORGANIZED AND VERTICALLY TILTED, WHICH IS KEEPING A 
LID ON DEVELOPMENT. GLOBAL AND ENSEMBLE MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT 
90S WILL TURN WESTWARD IMMINENTLY, AND TRACK TOWARDS THE COAST OF 
MADAGASCAR. GFS REMAINS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE OF THE DETERMINISTIC 
MODELS SHOWING DEVELOPMENT IN THE NEXT 48 HOURS, WHILE THE ECMWF 
CONTINUES TO LAG BEHIND AND PROLONG THE DEVELOPMENTAL PERIOD BEYOND 
48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 28 TO 33 
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. 
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE 
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS HIGH. SEE REF B (WTXS21 PGTW 070730) 
FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPDATED TCFA 90S INFORMATION IN PARA. 
2.B.(1).//
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