WTXS21 PGTW 070730
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 90S) REISSUED//
REF/A/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/070730ZFEB2026//
AMPN/REF A IS TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 18.0S 58.3E TO 18.2S 54.1E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 28 TO 33 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 070600Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 18.0S 58.1E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SOUTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED 
NEAR 17.4S 58.9E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 18.0S 58.1E, APPROXIMATELY 
141NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF MAURITIUS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE 
IMAGERY DEPICTS AN OBSCURED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION, WITH PERSISTENT 
CONVECTION KEEPING THE LLC COVERED FROM VIEW. A TIMELY 070511Z ASCAT-B 
PARTIAL PASS REVEALED THE LLC TO BE HIGHLY ELONGATED ALONG A NORTHWEST-
SOUTHEAST AXIS, WITH SURPRISINGLY LIGHT WINDS CONSIDERING THE STRENGTH 
OF THE CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST (CDO). MAXIMUM WINDS OF JUST 25 KNOTS WERE 
FOUND ALONG THE EASTERN FLANK OF THE LLC, THOUGH IT IS HIGHLY LIKELY 
THAT MORE ELEVATED WINDS ARE LOCATED ON THE NORTHWESTERN SIDE OF THE 
CIRCULATION, WHICH THE ASCAT MISSED. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS 
FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (10 TO 
15KTS), WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (28 TO 29 C), AND GOOD EQUATORWARD 
OUTFLOW. HOWEVER, THE VORTEX REMAINS DISORGANIZED AND VERTICALLY TILTED, 
WHICH IS KEEPING A LID ON DEVELOPMENT. GLOBAL AND ENSEMBLE MODELS ARE IN 
AGREEMENT THAT 90S WILL TURN WESTWARD IMMINENTLY, AND TRACK TOWARDS THE 
COAST OF MADAGASCAR. GFS REMAINS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE OF THE 
DETERMINISTIC MODELS SHOWING DEVELOPMENT IN THE NEXT 48 HOURS, WHILE THE 
ECMWF CONTINUES TO LAG BEHIND AND PROLONG THE DEVELOPMENTAL PERIOD 
BEYOND 48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 28 TO 
33 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. 
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE 
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS HIGH. THIS SUPERSEDES REF A 
(WTXS21 PGTW 060730).
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 
080730Z.//
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