ABIO10 PGTW 061800
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN 
OCEAN/061800Z-071800ZFEB2026//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/061351ZFEB2026//
REF/B/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/060721ZFEB2026//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AND REF B IS A TROPICAL 
CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 06FEB26 1200Z, TROPICAL CYCLONE 20S (TWENTY) WAS LOCATED 
NEAR 18.5S 119.8E, APPROXIMATELY 128 NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF PORT 
HEDLAND, AUSTRALIA, AND HAD TRACKED WEST- SOUTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS 
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE 
ESTIMATED AT 40 KNOTS GUSTING TO 50 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTXS31 PGTW 
061500) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
16.5S 59.6E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 17.2S 59.6E, APPROXIMATELY 218 NM 
NORTH-NORTHWEST OF MAURITIUS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE 
IMAGERY (EIR) DEPICTS FLARING CONVECTION TO THE NORTHWEST OF A 
PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). ENVIRONMENTAL 
ANALYSIS REVEALS MARGINALLY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH 
LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (10-15 KTS), GOOD UPPER-LEVEL EQUATORWARD 
OUTFLOW, DRY AIR TO THE SOUTH, AND WARM (28-29 C) SEA SURFACE 
TEMPERATURES.  GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT REGARDING A SOUTH-
SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HOWEVER, MODELS HAVE 
STARTED TO DISAGREE ON THE DEVELOPMENT OF 90S, WITH ECMWF NOW BEING 
MORE AGGRESSIVE THAN GFS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE 
ESTIMATED AT 23 TO 28 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED 
TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT 
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS HIGH. SEE REF B 
(WTXS21 PGTW 060730) FOR FURTHER DETAILS
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
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