ABIO10 PGTW 060730
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN 
REISSUED/060730Z-061800ZFEB2026//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/060152ZFEB2026//
REF/B/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/060721ZFEB2026//
NARR/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING. REF B IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE 
FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 06FEB26 0000Z, TROPICAL CYCLONE 20S (TWENTY) WAS LOCATED 
NEAR 17.8S 121.9E, APPROXIMATELY 18 NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF BROOME, 
AUSTRALIA, AND HAD TRACKED WESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX 
HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 30 KNOTS 
GUSTING TO 40 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTXS31 PGTW 060300) FOR FURTHER 
DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
15.3S 60.3E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 16.1S 60.1E, APPROXIMATELY 289 NM 
NORTH-NORTHEAST OF MAURITIUS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE 
IMAGERY REVEALED A GRADUALLY CONSOLIDATING, PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW-
LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH PERSISTENT CONVECTION IN THE NORTHWESTERN 
PERIPHERY OF THE LLCC. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS SHOWS MARGINALLY 
FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH WARM SEA SURFACE 
TEMPERATURES OF 28-29 C, GOOD WESTWARD AND EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT, 
OFFSET BY 15-20 KTS OF SOUTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. GLOBAL 
DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODELS ARE IN A GOOD AGREEMENT ON STEADY 
INTENSIFICATION WITH THE GFS DETERMINISTIC BEING THE MOST AGGRESSIVE 
SOLUTION IN THE SHORT TERM ON DEVELOPMENT TIMELINE SHOWING TROPICAL 
STORM CHARACTERISTICS WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. REGARDING ENSEMBLE 
GUIDANCE, THE GFS ENSEMBLE IS THE MOST CONFIDENT AS IT TRACKS 
SOUTHWESTWARD WITH AN EXTREMELY TIGHT GROUPING OF MEMBERS UNTIL TAU 
60. AFTER TAU 60, THE MEMBERS DEPICT A MORE WESTWARD TRACK TOWARDS 
MADAGASCAR WITH CONFIDENCE DECREASING AND DIVERGING MEMBERS AS IT 
TRACKS WESTWARD. THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE REMAINS IN A FAIRLY TIGHT GROUPING 
THROUGH THE ENTIRE LIFESPAN AS IT TRANSITS SOUTHWESTWARD UNTIL TAU 72, 
THEREAFTER, THE MEMBERS DEPICT A WESTWARD TURN TOWARDS THE 
NORTHEASTERN COAST OF MADAGASCAR. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE 
ESTIMATED AT 23 TO 28 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED 
TO BE NEAR 1008 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT 
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS HIGH. SEE REF B 
(WTXS21 PGTW 060730) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPDATED INFORMATION IN PARA. 2.B.(1) 
WITH REISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT DATA.//
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