WTXS21 PGTW 060730
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 90S) REISSUED//
REF/A/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/050721ZFEB2026//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
090 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 15.9S 60.2E TO 19.3S 59.3E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 23 TO 28 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 060600Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 16.1S 60.1E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SOUTHWARD AT 08 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
15.3S 60.3E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 16.1S 60.1E, APPROXIMATELY 289 NM NORTH-
NORTHEAST OF MAURITIUS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY 
REVEALED A GRADUALLY CONSOLIDATING, PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL 
CIRCULATION WITH PERSISTENT CONVECTION IN THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF 
THE LLCC. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS SHOWS MARGINALLY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS 
FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF 28-29 C, GOOD 
WESTWARD AND EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT, OFFSET BY 15-20 KTS OF 
SOUTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE 
MODELS ARE IN A GOOD AGREEMENT ON STEADY INTENSIFICATION WITH THE GFS 
DETERMINISTIC BEING THE MOST AGGRESSIVE SOLUTION IN THE SHORT TERM ON 
DEVELOPMENT TIMELINE SHOWING TROPICAL STORM CHARACTERISTICS WITHIN THE 
NEXT 24 HOURS. REGARDING ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE, THE GFS ENSEMBLE IS THE MOST 
CONFIDENT AS IT TRACKS SOUTHWESTWARD WITH AN EXTREMELY TIGHT GROUPING OF 
MEMBERS UNTIL TAU 60. AFTER TAU 60, THE MEMBERS DEPICT A MORE WESTWARD 
TRACK TOWARDS MADAGASCAR WITH CONFIDENCE DECREASING AND DIVERGING 
MEMBERS AS IT TRACKS WESTWARD. THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE REMAINS IN A FAIRLY 
TIGHT GROUPING THROUGH THE ENTIRE LIFESPAN AS IT TRANSITS SOUTHWESTWARD 
UNTIL TAU 72, THEREAFTER, THE MEMBERS DEPICT A WESTWARD TURN TOWARDS THE 
NORTHEASTERN COAST OF MADAGASCAR. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE 
ESTIMATED AT 23 TO 28 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO 
BE NEAR 1008 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT 
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS HIGH. THIS SUPERSEDES 
REF A (WTXS21 PGTW 050730).
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 
070730Z.//
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