ABIO10 PGTW 060300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN 
REISSUED/060300Z-061800ZFEB2026//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/060152ZFEB2026//
REF/B/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/050721ZFEB2026//
NARR/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AND REF B IS A TROPICAL 
CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 06FEB26 0000Z, TROPICAL CYCLONE 20S (TWENTY) WAS LOCATED 
NEAR 17.8S 121.9E, APPROXIMATELY 18 NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF BROOME, 
AUSTRALIA, AND HAD TRACKED WESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX 
HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 30 KNOTS 
GUSTING TO 40 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTXS31 PGTW 060300) FOR FURTHER 
DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
14.6S 61.0E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 15.3S 60.3E, APPROXIMATELY 415 NM 
NORTH-NORTHEAST OF MAURITIUS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE 
IMAGERY AND A 050448Z METOP-C ASCAT PASS REVEALED A GRADUALLY 
CONSOLIDATING, FULLY EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH ELEVATED 
SURFACE WINDS LOCATED IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO FLARING ISOLATED 
CONVECTIVE STRUCTURES THROUGHOUT THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN QUADRANTS. 
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS SHOWS MARGINALLY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS WITH WARM 
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF 28-29 C, GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, OFFSET 
BY 20-25 KTS OF SOUTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. GLOBAL 
DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODELS ARE IN A GOOD AGREEMENT ON STEADY 
INTENSIFICATION, ALTHOUGH ENSEMBLES SHOW SLIGHT DISAGREEMENT ON THE 
TRACK AFTER 72 HOURS. THE GFS ENSEMBLE CHARACTERIZES A WESTWARD TURN 
TOWARDS MADAGASCAR INTO TAU 72 WHILE THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE ILLUSTRATES A 
STEADY TRACK SOUTHWESTWARD INTO TAU 72, WITH A WESTWARD TRACK 
THEREAFTER. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 28 TO 33 
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1008 MB. THE 
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN 
THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS HIGH. SEE REF B (WTXS21 PGTW 050730) FOR 
FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 98P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
16.4S 126.7E IS NOW THE SUBJECT OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING. SEE 
PARA. 2.A.1 FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER SUBTROPICAL SYSTEMS.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADED AREA IN PARA 2.C.(1) TO WARNING 
STATUS.//
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