ABIO10 PGTW 051800
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN 
OCEAN/051800Z-061800ZFEB2026//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/050721ZFEB2026//
REF/B/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/051751ZFEB2026//
NARR/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
12.7S 62.5E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 14.1S 61.5E, APPROXIMATELY 433 NM 
NORTH-NORTHEAST OF MAURITIUS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE 
IMAGERY AND A 050448Z METOP-C ASCAT PASS REVEALED A GRADUALLY 
CONSOLIDATING, FULLY EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH ELEVATED 
SURFACE WINDS LOCATED IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO FLARING ISOLATED 
CONVECTIVE STRUCTURES THROUGHOUT THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN QUADRANTS. 
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS SHOWS MARGINALLY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS WITH WARM 
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF 28-29 C, GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, OFFSET 
BY 20-25 KTS OF SOUTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. GLOBAL 
DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODELS ARE IN A GOOD AGREEMENT ON STEADY 
INTENSIFICATION, ALTHOUGH ENSEMBLES SHOW SLIGHT DISAGREEMENT ON THE 
TRACK AFTER 72 HOURS. THE GFS ENSEMBLE CHARACTERIZES A WESTWARD TURN 
TOWARDS MADAGASCAR INTO TAU 72 WHILE THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE ILLUSTRATES A 
STEADY TRACK SOUTHWESTWARD INTO TAU 72, WITH A WESTWARD TRACK 
THEREAFTER. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 28 TO 33 
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1008 MB. THE 
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN 
THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS HIGH. SEE REF A (WTXS21 PGTW 050730) FOR 
FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 98P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
16.4S 126.7E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 17.9S 122.6E, APPROXIMATELY 24 NM 
EAST-NORTHEAST OF BROOME, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED 
SATELLITE IMAGERY (EIR) AS WELL AS A 051352Z METOP B 89V MICROWAVE 
IMAGE DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING CIRCULATION WITH A PARTIALLY EXPOSED 
LLCC, RADAR FROM BROOME, AUSTRALIA SHOWS DEEP CONVECTIVE CELLS ON THE 
WESTERN PERIPHERY DISPLACED FROM THE CIRCULATION CENTER AS IT TAKES A 
MORE COASTAL POSITION. A 051356Z ASCAT PASS REVEALS ELEVATED WINDS 
(20-25 KTS) ALONG THE AUSTRALIAN COAST IVO ADELE ISLAND THESE ARE 
VERIFIED BY SURFACE OBSERVATIONS ON ADELE ISLAND AT 051700Z READING 
21KT WITH GUSTS OF 30KT. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES FAVORABLE 
CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT AT THIS TIME WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR 
(10-15KTS), GOOD OUTFLOW ALOFT AND WARM COASTAL WATERS (28-29C). 
GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC MODEL DEPICTIONS ARE IN AGREEMENT ON THE 
CIRCULATION TRACKING BRIEFLY OVER WATER AND QUICKLY CONSOLIDATING AND 
INTENSIFYING ALONG THE WESTERN AUSTRALIAN COAST OVER THE NEXT 12-
24HOURS.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 999 MB. THE 
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN 
THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO HIGH. SEE REF B (WTXS PGTW 051800) 
FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER SUBTROPICAL SYSTEMS.//
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