WTXS21 PGTW 051800
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
REF/A/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/050730Z FEB 26//
AMPN/REF IS TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTXS21 PGTW 050730)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
075 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 17.8S 122.7E TO 19.0S 120.2E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 051800Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 17.8S 122.6E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS:
THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 98P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 16.4S 126.7E 
IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 17.9S 122.6E, APPROXIMATELY 24 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF 
BROOME, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY (EIR) AS 
WELL AS A 051352Z METOP B 89V MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING 
CIRCULATION WITH A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LLCC, RADAR FROM BROOME, AUSTRALIA 
SHOWS DEEP CONVECTIVE CELLS ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY DISPLACED FROM THE 
CIRCULATION CENTER AS IT TAKES A MORE COASTAL POSITION. A 051356Z ASCAT 
PASS REVEALS ELEVATED WINDS (20-25 KTS) ALONG THE AUSTRALIAN COAST IVO 
ADELE ISLAND THESE ARE VERIFIED BY SURFACE OBSERVATIONS ON ADELE ISLAND 
AT 051700Z READING 21KT WITH GUSTS OF 30KT. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS 
INDICATES FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT AT THIS TIME WITH LOW 
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (10-15KTS), GOOD OUTFLOW ALOFT AND WARM COASTAL 
WATERS (28-29C). GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC MODEL DEPICTIONS ARE IN AGREEMENT 
ON THE CIRCULATION TRACKING BRIEFLY OVER WATER AND QUICKLY CONSOLIDATING 
AND INTENSIFYING ALONG THE WESTERN AUSTRALIAN COAST OVER THE NEXT 12-
24HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 
KNOTS.MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 
061800Z.
4. SEE REF A FOR DETAILS ON A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT
LOCATED NEAR 13.5S 62.0E
//
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