ABIO10 PGTW 050730
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN 
REISSUED/050730Z-051800ZFEB2026//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/050721ZFEB2026//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
12.7S 62.5E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 13.5S 62.0E, APPROXIMATELY 477 NM 
NORTH-NORTHEAST OF MAURITIUS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE 
IMAGERY AND A 050448Z METOP-C ASCAT PASS REVEALED A GRADUALLY 
CONSOLIDATING, FULLY EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH ELEVATED 
SURFACE WINDS LOCATED IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO FLARING ISOLATED 
CONVECTIVE STRUCTURES THROUGHOUT THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN QUADRANTS. 
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS SHOWS MARGINALLY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS WITH WARM 
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF 28-29 C, GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, OFFSET 
BY 20-25 KTS OF SOUTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. GLOBAL 
DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODELS ARE IN A GOOD AGREEMENT ON STEADY 
INTENSIFICATION, ALTHOUGH ENSEMBLES SHOW SLIGHT DISAGREEMENT ON THE 
TRACK AFTER 72 HOURS. THE GFS ENSEMBLE CHARACTERIZES A WESTWARD TURN 
TOWARDS MADAGASCAR INTO TAU 72 WHILE THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE ILLUSTRATES A 
STEADY TRACK SOUTHWESTWARD INTO TAU 72, WITH A WESTWARD TRACK 
THEREAFTER. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 28 TO 33 
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE 
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN 
THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO HIGH.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 98P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
16.4S 126.7E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 17.3S 124.4E, APPROXIMATELY 131 NM 
EAST-NORTHEAST OF BROOME, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE 
IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A SLOWLY CONSOLIDATING CIRCULATION WITH A 
PARTIALLY EXPOSED LLCC, WITH INCREASING DEEP CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ON 
THE WESTERN SIDE FROM INTERACTION WITH COASTAL WATERS. ENVIRONMENTAL 
ANALYSIS INDICATES FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT AT THIS TIME 
WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (10-15KTS) AND GOOD OUTFLOW ALOFT. THE 
CURRENT VORTICITY SIGNATURE AND SPEED OVER LAND OF THE CIRCULATION 
FAVORS GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC MODEL DEPICTIONS WHICH ARE IN AGREEMENT ON 
THE CIRCULATION TRACKING BRIEFLY OVER WATER AND QUICKLY CONSOLIDATING 
ALONG THE AUSTRALIAN COAST OVER THE NEXT 48-72HOURS. GLOBAL ENSEMBLE 
MEMBERS HOWEVER HAVE A SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT OUTLOOK WITH GEFS SHOWING A 
MAJORITY OF MEMBERS TRACKING WEST INTO THE INDIAN OCEAN AND EPS SPLIT 
BETWEEN HUGGING THE COAST AND SLOWLY INTENSIFYING OR FOLLOWING THE 
GEFS LEAD AND TRACKING WEST. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE 
ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED 
TO BE NEAR 1001 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT 
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS MEDIUM.
      (2) NO OTHER SUBTROPICAL SYSTEMS.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADED AREA IN PARA. 2.B.(1) TO 
HIGH.//
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