ABIO10 PGTW 050100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN 
REISSUED/050100Z-051800ZFEB2026//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
11.3S 63.7E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.7S 62.5E, APPROXIMATELY 550 NM 
NORTH-NORTHEAST OF MAURITIUS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE 
IMAGERY (EIR) REVEALS AN EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS 
CONTINUING TO CONSOLIDATE. DEEP CONVECTION CONTINUES TO BUILD AROUND 
THE CENTER AS EVIDENCED BY SIGNIFICANTLY COOLED CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES 
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS FAVORABLE 
CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (15-20 
KNOTS), GOOD UPPER-LEVEL EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, AND WARM (28-29 C) SEA 
SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS AGREE ON A SLOW SOUTHWARD TRACK 
AND STEADY DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED 
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 23 TO 27 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL 
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE 
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS 
REMAINS MEDIUM.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 98P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
16.6S 128.5E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 16.4S 126.7E, APPROXIMATELY 267 NM 
EAST-NORTHEAST OF BROOME, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE 
IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A SLOWLY CONSOLIDATING CIRCULATION WITH A 
PARTIALLY EXPOSED LLCC, WITH INCREASING DEEP CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ON 
THE WESTERN SIDE FROM INTERACTION WITH COASTAL WATERS. ENVIRONMENTAL 
ANALYSIS INDICATES FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT AT THIS TIME 
WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (10-15KTS) AND GOOD OUTFLOW ALOFT. THE 
CURRENT VORTICITY SIGNATURE AND SPEED OVER LAND OF THE CIRCULATION 
FAVORS GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC MODEL DEPICTIONS WHICH ARE IN AGREEMENT ON 
THE CIRCULATION TRACKING BRIEFLY OVER WATER AND QUICKLY CONSOLIDATING 
ALONG THE AUSTRALIAN COAST OVER THE NEXT 48-72HOURS. GLOBAL ENSEMBLE 
MEMBERS HOWEVER HAVE A SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT OUTLOOK WITH GEFS SHOWING A 
MAJORITY OF MEMBERS TRACKING WEST INTO THE INDIAN OCEAN AND EPS SPLIT 
BETWEEN HUGGING THE COAST AND SLOWLY INTENSIFYING OR FOLLOWING THE 
GEFS LEAD AND TRACKING WEST. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE 
ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED 
TO BE NEAR 1001 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT 
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.
      (2) NO OTHER SUBTROPICAL SYSTEMS.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADED AREA IN PARA 2.C.(1) TO 
MEDIUM.//
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