ABIO10 PGTW 041800
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN 
OCEAN/041800Z-051800ZFEB2026//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
11.3S 63.7E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 11.6S 63.4E, APPROXIMATELY 625 NM 
NORTH-NORTHEAST OF MAURITIUS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE 
IMAGERY (EIR) REVEALS AN EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS 
CONTINUING TO CONSOLIDATE. DEEP CONVECTION CONTINUES TO BUILD AROUND 
THE CENTER AS EVIDENCED BY SIGNIFICANTLY COOLED CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES 
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS FAVORABLE 
CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (15-20 
KNOTS), GOOD UPPER-LEVEL EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, AND WARM (28-29 C) SEA 
SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS AGREE ON A SLOW SOUTHWARD TRACK 
AND STEADY DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED 
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 23 TO 27 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL 
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE 
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS 
REMAINS MEDIUM.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY:
      (1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 98P) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 16.6S 
128.5E, APPROXIMATELY 59 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF WYNDHAM, AUSTRALIA. 
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY (EIR) DEPICTS A 
RELATIVELY WEAK AND DISORGANIZED MASS OF BROADLY TURNING CONVECTION 
WITH A WEAK LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. A 041233Z METOP-C 89GHZ 
MICROWAVE IMAGE FURTHER SUPPORTS THIS BY FURTHER REVEALING THE BROAD 
DISORGANIZED NATURE OF 98P ALONG WITH MOST OF THE CONVECTION BEING 
DISPLACED TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE LLCC. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS 
INDICATES MARGINAL CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT AT THIS TIME WITH LOW TO 
MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (15-20KTS) AND GOOD OUTFLOW ALOFT. GLOBAL 
DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE SPLIT ON DEVELOPMENT FOR THIS SYSTEM WITH GFS 
AND NAVGEM HAVING 98P ENTER THE LOW SHEAR ENVIRONMENT OF THE WESTERN 
COAST OF AUSTRALIA AND QUICKLY CONSOLIDATING OVER WATER, HOWEVER ECMWF 
AND AIFS SHOW THE CIRCULATION INTENSIFYING BY A MARGINAL AMOUNT AND 
REAMING INLAND THROUGHOUT THE DURATION OF ITS SHORT LIFE CYCLE. 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. 
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE 
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN 
THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
      (2) NO OTHER SUBTROPICAL SYSTEMS.//
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